Obama....

[heymagic]

Wow..a whole speech and he didn't invent any new words...warm, intelligent, charismatic, well spoken....obviously not a Republican :lol:

This could be an interesting Presidential race for a change.

[Go Aweigh2452]

I am predicting now that Obama will have the first YouTube campaign. While Hillary will undoubtedly have some YouTube saleability, I feel that Barack's engaging style and alignment with the younger folks will be picked up by the YouTube generation. The YouTube generation will see Hillary as Old Hat - the establishment. Just as television surpassed the printed word, the blogger supported campaign will be surpassed by the video or "Vlogging" campaign.

He has a lack of expereince with the services is painfully obivous when he announced a full troop withdrawal within a year of his taking over as President. Maybe he has some magic carpet to wisk away all the troops over there? It cannot be done even if they all lined up and waited for the next transport to come along...

Inspecting a bunch of aging WWII ammo in the Ukraine would have you believe he is now a "national-security" leader for the demoncrats... NOT...

His biggest success in IL is getting the state prepared for an outbreak of the avian flu... yeah right... that seems politically safe... there have been about 200 cases of avian flu since 1997. Never has any one been infected by human to human contact. They have all resulted from direct contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces. Almost 4 times more people die of the common cold every year! Avian flu is a money boon dogle. But it is politically safe like any scare tactic used today.

Like a shooting star, his 15 mins of fame will go out quickly, especially if Hillary (who leads in double digits) decides to blow him out. It was the Hillary camp that brought up the muslim schooling Obama had... You think she'll stop there?

I would however welcome Obama as the next demoncrat to run against a republican for pres.

[SomeSailor]

I personally like what I've seen of John Edwards. Obama would be a close second I suppose.

Anything as long as Billary doesn't pull off an end-around play :(

I do disagree with your opinion on Avian Flu though Doug. Big differnce between the common cold and an influenza pandemic (Bird Flu or otherwise).

[heymagic]

So far I'm an Edward's guy also. Class act, strong wife, they handle adversity well. TV mentioned that Bilary is 3 to 1 over Obama on fund raising. I believe she has some wealthy supporters but that doesn't always translate into nation wide support. Interesting race ahead , any bets on when the mud starts flying ?

[SomeSailor]

I like what Edwards has done since he made the mistake of shaking Kerry's hand the last time around.

[Go Aweigh2452]

I do disagree with your opinion on Avian Flu though Doug. Big differnce between the common cold and an influenza pandemic (Bird Flu or otherwise).


A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. The disease spreads easily person-to-person

Avian flu: Most cases of H5N1 influenza infection in humans have resulted from DIRECT contact with infected poultry... IE... NOT person to person... the spread of the virus from person to person has been limited and has not continued beyond one person.

History repeats itself... remember the 5 million swine-flu vaccine program of 30 years ago. The hastily contrived program for swine flu resulted in hundreds of Guillain Barre Syndrome paralysis victims as well as countless deaths for a flu pandemic that never materialized.

First step for anyone caught up in this avian flu hype nonsense is to take a deep breath and relax and realize the truth here. Unless you are full time bird handler in a third world country that has a seriously challenged immune system you probably have a much better chance of winning the lottery than dying from the proposed avian flu epidemic.

[pkrogh]

From what I understand the big problem will happen only if the virus mutates
into one that will communicate from human to human. At that point it seems
the only real defense is to avoid contact with the world until it 'goes away'.

Pete

[SomeSailor]

Yeah Doug... and Global warming is junk science as well.

I don't think many people realize what a dangerous situation this could become. ANY influenza virus can be incredibly dangerous. It normally only seriously affects those with compromised immune systems such as children and the elderly. For them... it can be deadly and LARGE percentage.

The REAL danger comes from a NEW virus... one the human species has not been previously exposed to.

40 million died in 1918... and that was in the days before automobiles, planes and modern transportation. It could literally span the globe in hours. From one end of the globe to another before the carrier ever breaks a fever.

The danger is the TYPE of virus... not the virus itself. Imagine morphability of HIV with the virility of a strain of influenza... there would be no stopping it. Now give it the mortality rate that influenza already has... and you've got yourself a problem.

[Go Aweigh2452]

40 million died in 1918... and that was in the days before automobiles, planes and modern transportation. It could literally span the globe in hours. From one end of the globe to another before the carrier ever breaks a fever.

Medical remedies were virtually non-existent.

Smallpox alone, in the twentieth century, has killed an estimated 300 million individuals, about threefold as many persons as all the wars of this century...

ahhh but medical breakthroughs has made smallpox not that big a threat today.

17th century saw the Bubonic plague which claimed 15% of Londons population. Again, medical remedies were non-existent.

A disastrous epidemic occurred in the Mediterranean during the time of the Roman emperor Justinian; an estimated 25% to 50% of the population is reported to have succumbed. The most widespread epidemic began in Constantinople in 1334, spread throughout Europe (returning Crusaders were a factor), and in less than 20 years is estimated to have killed three quarters of the population of Europe and Asia. Again, no medical remedies back then.

Today, we have many medical breakthroughs. I believe we will be just fine.

My point is that I do not think the cost of 2 million innoculatons which may or may not work at a cost to date of over 2 BILLION is too much... its a Boon dogel!!!

[pkrogh]

Until the virus mutates, and is identified, no vaccine can be made for it. So far
we can only make vaccines for things we have already identified and can
culture in the lab.
The fear among medical people is that the 'bird flu' virus could mutate to a
human communicable type and spread very quickly before a vaccine could
be made.
Vaccines take time to develope and the facilities to mass produce them are
at this time limited from what I read.
I think if this sucker goes 'human' that we've got a real problem!

Pete

[SomeSailor]

My point is that I do not think the cost of 2 million innoculatons which may or may not work at a cost to date of over 2 BILLION is too much... its a Boon dogel!!!

The human immune system is triggered to respond to "similar" strains of viruses as well.


Washington State Summit

Opening Remarks Prepared for Delivery
By the Honorable Alex Azar
Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services
April 14, 2006

On September 27th, 1918, Washington officials first reported the presence of influenza, saying that "a number of cases have been reported in the vicinity of American Lake." This official report came ten days after the pandemic actually appeared in the state, when recruits from Philadelphia arrived at the Puget Sound Naval Yard—eleven of the recruits were ill with the flu.

On September 23rd, 10,000 people gathered to witness a review of Washington's National Guard Infantry. Though the camp's medical officer acknowledged there was a minor epidemic underway, he insisted there was nothing to worry about. His miscalculation helped enable the flu to spread. By the 25th, influenza was epidemic in Seattle.

By October 11th, Washington officials reported that "schools have been closed and public gathering prohibited at Seattle, Bremerton, Pasco, Prosser, Sultan, and Port Angeles. On October 7, it was estimated that there were 1,000 cases of influenza at Bremerton." Many of the schools that were closed didn't open until January or March 1919.

By October 18th, it was concluded that "the disease is epidemic at Seattle and Spokane." And, over that week, "7,349 cases were reported." The following week, 5,322 cases were reported.

On October 29th, Seattle made wearing masks mandatory, and the rest of the state followed suit the next day.

In Seattle, the old City Hall and one of the dormitories at the University of Washington became emergency hospitals. Public gatherings were banned, even church attendance. In response to complaints from ministers, the mayor said, "Religion which won't keep for two weeks, is not worth having."

When it comes to pandemics, there is no rational basis to believe that the early years of the 21st century will be different than the past. If a pandemic strikes again, it will strike in Washington.



Don't worry Doug... looks like you guys over in Bremerton got your share early on... ;)

[Go Aweigh2452]

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

hey chicken little... :shock:

yea, and SARS outbreak in April 2003 was also suppose to sweep the world... remember the panic it caused? kill millions if not billons of people...what happen??? Somehow it all got "contained" by July 2003 (five months)... science and medical research caught it... :oops: wow, go figure... research... medicines... what a concept... ;) btw, the virus was declared eradicated by the World Health Organization in 2005. :roll:

Oh and the West Nile virus... another biggie.. no wait... it didn't "pan"ademic out... :? that one was suppose to be able to infect horses, humans, and birds like magpies and crows... :(

all it did was cause a media frenzy, and was undoubtedly a large boon for the bug-repellent industry... ;)


You want prevention? sure, just do what your mom has told you to do since day one... for goodness sake... wash your hands... you'll be safe, I assure you... :lol:

In the mean time, relax, if the avian flu doesn't get you :shock: (last documented case was in 1997) maybe the sky falling might. :?

LOL...

[Randygh]

If a highly pathologic strain of influenza, regardless of its source, infects humans there will be variable morbidity and mortality of national populations. There aren't many peoples on earth that are truly isolated, but those isolated populations will exhibit higher morbidity and mortality.

Although influenza viruses are typed by hemagglutin (H) and nascent (N) antigens there is variable cross protection among the different surface antigens. What this means is that even though a new strain of virus emerges through mutation, if the new virus has protein antigens on its surface that are similar in size and shape to other viral antigens there is cross reaction of antibody to those antigens. That type of cross reactivity may be responsible for some immune mediated diseases (Guillen-Barre syndrome). This cross protection, along with viral loading, probably has much to do with severity of clinical disease.

If a virus is highly contagious, pathologic, has a very low infective dosage, and is immunologically isolated then alot of people are going to get very sick. Certainly existing worldwide health care facilities could not address needs if billions of people are sick. If such a pandemic occurs, immunologic compromised individuals are in deep kimshee, the rest of us may get sick and depending on our immune responses some of us may croak.

A healthy immune system is dependant on the health of the individual. An obese, physically unfit, diabetic, smoker, habitual drinker, who likes to go boating is probably at high risk of being severely affected if infected by a highly pathologic virus. :D

[SomeSailor]

In the mean time, relax, if the avian flu doesn't get you :shock: (last documented case was in 1997) maybe the sky falling might. :?

LOL...

You need to get out more Doug... Avian Flu, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A virus (HPAI – subtypes H5 and H7) infected 34 humans in January across Viet Nam and Thailand... killing 23 of them. That's a mortality rate of around 65%?

Here's a timeline of influenza:

1918

Pandemic
“Spanish flu” H1N1
The most devastating flu pandemic in recent history, killing more than 500,000 people in the United States, and 20 million to 50 million people worldwide.

1957-58

Pandemic
"Asian flu" H2N2
First identified in China, this virus caused roughly 70,000 deaths in the United States during the 1957-58 season. Because this strain has not circulated in humans since 1968, no one under 30 years old has immunity to this strain.

1968-69

Pandemic
"Hong Kong flu" H3N2
First detected in Hong Kong, this virus caused roughly 34,000 deaths in the United States during the 1968-69 season. H3N2 viruses still circulate today.

1977

Appearance of a new influenza strain in humans
“Russian flu” H1N1
Isolated in northern China, this virus was similar to the virus that spread before 1957. For this reason, individuals born before 1957 were generally protected, however children and young adults born after that year were not because they had no prior immunity.

1997

Appearance of a new influenza strain in humans
H5N1
The first time an influenza virus was found to be transmitted directly from birds to people, with infections linked to exposure to poultry markets. Eighteen people in Hong Kong were hospitalized, six of whom died.

1999

Appearance of a new influenza strain in humans
H9N2
Appeared for the first time in humans. It caused illness in two children in Hong Kong, with poultry being the probable source.

2002

Appearance of a new influenza strain in humans
H7N2
Evidence of infection is found in one person in Virginia following a poultry outbreak.

2003

Appearance of a new influenza strain in humans
H5N1
Caused two Hong Kong family members to be hospitalized after a visit to China, killing one of them, a 33-year-old man. (A third family member died while in China of an undiagnosed respiratory illness.)

H7N7
In the first reported cases of this strain in humans, 89 people in the Netherlands, most of whom were poultry workers, became ill with eye infections or flu-like symptoms. A veterinarian who visited one of the affected poultry farms died.

H7N2
Caused a person to be hospitalized in New York.

H9N2
Caused illness in one child in Hong Kong.

2004

Appearance of a new influenza strain in humans
H5N1
Caused illness in 47 people in Thailand and Vietnam, 34 of whom died. Researchers are especially concerned because this flu strain, which is quite deadly, is becoming endemic in Asia.

H7N3
Is reported for the first time in humans. The strain caused illness in two poultry workers in Canada.

H10N7
Is reported for the first time in humans. It caused illness in two infants in Egypt. One child’s father is a poultry merchant.

2005

H5N1
The first case of human infection with H5N1 arises in Cambodia in February. By May, WHO reports 4 Cambodian cases, all fatal. Indonesia reports its first case, which is fatal, in July. Over the next three months, 7 cases of laboratory-confirmed H5N1 infection in Indonesia, and 4 deaths, occur.

On December 30, WHO reports a cumulative total of 142 laboratory-confirmed cases of H5N1 infection worldwide, all in Asia, with 74 deaths. Asian countries in which human infection with H5N1 has been detected: Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and China.

2006

H5N1
In early January, two human cases of H5N1 infection, both fatal, are reported in rural areas of Eastern Turkey. Also in January, China reports new cases of H5N1 infection. As of January 25, China reports a total of 10 cases, with 7 deaths. On January 30, Iraq reports its first case of human H5N1 infection, which was fatal, to the WHO.

In March, the WHO confirmed seven cases of human H5N1 infection, and five deaths, in Azerbaijan. In April, WHO confirmed four cases of human H5N1 infection, and two fatalities, in Egypt.

In May, the WHO confirmed a case of human H5N1 infection in the African nation of Djibouti. This was the first confirmed case in sub-Saharan Africa.

2007

H5N1
In February, the WHO confirmed the first human death from H5N1 infection in Nigeria.

[Salmon Troller]

Not to make too light of a serious subject, the flu (avian or other) is only one of many reasons to hide under the bed. Other reasons might be a metor, an earthquake or volcano. We have yo-yo's with nukes and the mystery WMD's, we have world economics and a whole host of genetic experiments. None are as likely to affect you as falling off a ladder or being nailed in a car wreck and none of us will get out of this alive. Live a good life & enjoy the time you have. Don't stay awake at night wondering about the "what-ifs", the exercise is pointless and wastes the treasure of what you have.

[Go Aweigh2452]

Oh no, it's starting.... I mean continueing...

KUWAIT (Reuters) - Kuwait confirmed on Tuesday 12 cases of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in turkeys and chicken on Tuesday, but said the birds did not belong to poultry farms.

The ministry confirmed on Monday 20 cases in falcons of the same strain at a zoo and a farm in the south of the country, the first in two years.

In the latest development, a health ministry official confirmed a newspaper report that three turkeys and nine chicken were infected and said the ministry was testing people who came in contact with the birds.

The cases were found among "domestic backyard caged birds, not on poultry producing farms," Ahmed al-Shatti told Reuters.

"About 100 handlers and families of owners of infected birds have been tested and the results were negative. We are continuing the tests," he said

The Gulf Arab state has banned the import of live birds after the outbreaks. It reported a case of the deadly bird flu in a flamingo in 2005.

[Randygh]

I see that Billary and Barok are in Selma, AL today. Billary even had her husband, BJ Bill, with her. There going to be some interesting times ahead in the democratic party. If Billary wins the nomination, I wonder if she'll ask Obama to be her VP running mate? Who do you think will win the democratic nomination and who do you think will be the VP candidate? Just curious.