Debt!

[3788sam]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNS8IY_Td14

This is just a video showing how much we are devaluing our dollar right now!
But still pretty shocking!

[Play N Hookie II]

Ok so I know you can manipulate graphs and numbers anyway you like but this is indeed shocking and pretty hard to stomach. Thanks for sharing.

[3788sam]

I was pretty amazed that it remained so flat through all the wars!

I agree that you can make numbers look any way you want but this was pretty straight forward.

[voyager]

Very interesting. I would like to know more about it and how the consumer price index compares to it. I would be curious to know how much deflation we had during the great depression and some of the other times mentioned. I would also think that some devaluation of the dollar is not all that bad. It should make us more competitive on a global scale and we should see exports of products made in the USA increase. Of course that is if we can find anything that is still made in the USA to export :roll:

On the other hand my parents lived during the great depression and I seem to be remembering a lot more of what my dad used to always talk about. He never really believed in banks and many other financial institutions. There is a part of me, that seems to surface more frequently of late, that wants to take all the cash I can find and stick in a mattress.

[Go Aweigh2452]

On the other hand my parents lived during the great depression and I seem to be remembering a lot more of what my dad used to always talk about. He never really believed in banks and many other financial institutions. There is a part of me, that seems to surface more frequently of late, that wants to take all the cash I can find and stick in a mattress.


My grandma who past away in '84 said she saw bread selling for $1 a loaf three times in her life. That is how she judged a recession/inflation... BTW, she was from Germany and at one time it took almost a wheel barrel of money to buy groceries... Hope we are not looking at that...

[SomeSailor]

This whole mess is bred by greed and fed by fear. It's gonna bounce, and bounce big. It's near.

[Play N Hookie II]

This whole mess is bred by greed and fed by fear. It's gonna bounce, and bounce big. It's near.

I agree with you 110%...Historically speaking the S&P 500 has recouped greater than 33% of its losses within 40 days of hitting bottom in a bear market. If today we were at bottom we would experience an 18% growth within 40 days.

You can either have a place at the table or you can be on the menu when it all shakes out.

[Chass]

I just don't understand the fear thing. I know, I know, its been beat into my head, "WE ARE IN A RECESSION" thats what the media says, yes I know the unemployment rate is up blah blah blah.

In regard to stock market investment, EVERYTHING is on sale! I just upped my 401k contributions to the max allowable!

I think everyone is so much on the edge of their seats waiting for a sign that the economy is in recovery mode that its not going to take much to light it on fire. I know my wife is spending money on her business in preparation for recovery and so are many of her suppliers and business associates.

Its hard times that weed out the mediocre and make us all thinkers and innovators.

We will be a better people as a result of this. To sit around and wait for someone else to "fix" the problem IS the problem!

Chass
ct

[Chass]

I agree with you 110%...Historically speaking the S&P 500 has recouped greater than 33% of its losses within 40 days of hitting bottom in a bear market. If today we were at bottom we would experience an 18% growth within 40 days.

You can either have a place at the table or you can be on the menu when it all shakes out.

Thats great commentary. I sure don't want to be on the menu. Its got me thinking differently and finding work in places I never knew existed. I found myself today with more paying work than I've had in years. I guess its the MAKE IT HAPPEN mentality that I was raised with but whatever it is, you won't see me sitting around feeling sorry for my sorry *****!

Chass
ct

[3788sam]

I just don't understand the fear thing.
The Media is no help here.
News last night reported Costco 27% decline in profits. Makes is sound like it was a loss!

Yet another 30 billion tax payer dollars sent down the 60 billion loss AIG hole just gets a 10 second line on the news like it's no big deal!

A profit is a profit and right now any large corp. should be commended that their controls to maintain profits are working!

[Play N Hookie II]

In regard to stock market investment, EVERYTHING is on sale! I just upped my 401k contributions to the max allowable!

ct

This is what people don't often understand. They want to buy when it is doing well (high) then sell when things are poor. This losing strategy is from the heart and that is what the media continues to prey on whether there is intent or not it sells ad spots. Personally I am buying everything I can get my hands on. 52% sale price. What a deal!

[Go Aweigh2452]

This is what people don't often understand. They want to buy when it is doing well (high) then sell when things are poor. This losing strategy is from the heart and that is what the media continues to prey on whether there is intent or not it sells ad spots. Personally I am buying everything I can get my hands on. 52% sale price. What a deal!


I explain it to my students this way:

Go to Walmart find a pair of Lees jeans on sale for $20 and Kmart down the block has the same pair of Lees jeans not on sale for $40. Which do you buy and why?

Buy the ones on sale. In fact buy two pair... can get twice as many jeans for the same amount of money...

The we go into dollar cost averaging...

[SomeSailor]

You can either have a place at the table or you can be on the menu when it all shakes out.

I believe there's an opportunity playing out just below the surface that many are not even seeing. It's like a damned fire sale.

[voyager]

Fire sale yes but the question is which ones are going to end up ashes and which ones will survive. I think they are just postponing the amount of time it will take for some of these companies to be reduced to ashes. I still have all my investments,,,, well not all of what I used to have,,,, but I am still contributing so we are dollar cost averaging to some extent.

But right now I am not willing to invest any more liquid assets. I will be conservative and wait until they are fairly confident we have hit bottom. I may not see the huge returns or end up rich but I can live with smaller returns and a little more certainty that I will not be one that ends up in ashes.

[SomeSailor]

Not me. If you would have told me I could buy Boeing at $29/share a year ago, I would've bought with every nickle I had. Only thing different is the world panic mentality. We still have 3700 orders backlogged and plenty of engineering to go on everything we've got lined up.

[voyager]

The world panic mentality is what has me worried. All of the media outlets will report bad news and then do a follow up, and a follow up to the follow up. I spent 24 years in the media industry. Bad new increases readership, viewers and listeners, it always has. So even though the media does not create the news they do everything they can to perpetuate it. That fuels the world panic mentality. So until someone steps up and gives them something else to report we will have the panic mentality.

Now on the other side didn't one of the big airlines just cancel an order with Boeing citing concerns about keeping production schedules? I have to believe it was not over the productions schedule but rather a way out during a difficult time, and they will not be the last to cancel orders. And trading at $29.00 a share is probably not the bottom. It has traded lower in the past. Even it if is the bottom I would personally rather wait and see and maybe buy in at $33 or $39 after I am reasonably sure it has hit the bottom.

I mean I am just one little investor looking at my personal funds. I will wait until the big guys who manage all the retirement portfolios, mutual funds and all the rest start to dump money back in. Those are the people who will drive the market. They have staffs to research, predict, etc, etc. I am just the little guy here relying on the media for advice and they love to report bad news.

[SomeSailor]

I see your point in a way, but there are considerations. I can contribute up to 25% of my salary to pre-tax 401K. I'm capped at $16.5K a year. That's roughly $3,000/mo that I can toss in tax free. It's matched at 75% so I could suffer a pretty decent drop and still not eat into my own earned income.

I really do think that it'll end eventually and then start a slow and deliberate climb. For me, that climb will happen too fast if I wait until it's bottomed out. If Boeing stock doesn't rise above $30 by the time I'm retired for good... there are MUCH bigger problems problems.

[Chass]

For me, that climb will happen too fast if I wait until it's bottomed out. If Boeing stock doesn't rise above $30 by the time I'm retired for good... there are MUCH bigger problems problems.

I'd just be worried about being invested so deeply in any one company even if its the company you work for and consider very stable . . .

I know a number of older guys right now working beyond retirement because the stocks they were given as retirement no longer exist. Just simply gone. Not a risk I'm willing to take. You know what they say, "DIVERSIFY"!

Chass
ct

[SomeSailor]

I'd just be worried about being invested so deeply in any one company even if its the company you work for and consider very stable

I'm a re-tread retiree, so it's a chance I'm willing to take. Boeing is a huge percentage of this country's GDP. If it folded... we'd have bigger problems, and by the time I need my money back, we'll be well over the $29.30 I last paid. (heck, it's over $31 right now).